European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Emissions Regulation

Europe

Emissions Regulation

Question A:

US regulation of greenhouse gases – including carbon dioxide from motor vehicles and power plants, and methane from oil and gas wells – rests on the Clean Air Act. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced its rescission of the greenhouse gas endangerment finding and motor vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards: https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-rescission-greenhouse-gas-endangerment. The President of the National Academy of Sciences subsequently wrote to the organization's members, noting that 'the EPA justified its decision on legal, economic, and regulatory opinions, and not on the science’.

The weight of economic analysis and evidence supports the conclusion that some form of regulation of greenhouse gas emissions is warranted.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

For US consumers and firms, the health and environmental benefits of greenhouse gas emission standards outweigh the costs, making the EPA rescission substantially net negative for American society.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Since the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions are globally distributed, some form of collective international regulation is warranted.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

February 26, 2026

Digital Euro

Europe

Digital Euro

Question A:

Without a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), Europe risks a further loss of control over its monetary system to foreign payment service providers, including US Big Tech platforms and US stablecoin issuers.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Without a credible, modern wholesale settlement solution in central bank money - whether via a wholesale CBDC or equivalent infrastructure - Europe risks a further erosion of payments autonomy.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Financial Markets & Banking

February 5, 2026

Venezuela

Europe

Venezuela

This European survey examines (a) The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months; (b) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years; (c) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

January 14, 2026

Digital Privacy

Europe

Digital Privacy

This European survey examines (a) The potential for consumer privacy to be compromised by digital platforms’ use of personal data is sufficient to justify regulations that assign consumers some kind of default control rights over their data; b) To date, EU efforts to regulate use of personal data - primarily the General Data Protection Regulation, GDPR - have been largely ineffective at protecting consumers; b) To date, EU efforts to regulate use of personal data - primarily GDPR - have imposed substantial costs on European businesses, slowing innovation and growth

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

December 17, 2025

AI, Growth, and Jobs

Europe

AI, Growth, and Jobs

This European survey examines (a) Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years; b) Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

December 2, 2025

Low-carbon Energy R&D

Europe

Low-carbon Energy R&D

This European survey examines (a) For reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, subsidies for R&D on low-carbon technologies are justified in addition to carbon pricing mechanisms like carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems; (b) Higher subsidies for R&D on low-carbon technologies are justified by the fact that their successful deployment would not only reduce emissions in OECD countries but also reduce developing countries' emissions by encouraging them to substitute away from fossil fuels

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

November 13, 2025

Sustained Growth

Europe

Sustained Growth

This European survey examines (a) The combination of scientific progress, technological innovation, and openness to new ideas underpinned the emergence of sustained economic growth in the Industrial Revolution; (b) The process of creative destruction – in which innovation continually leads to the disruptive displacement of existing jobs, products, firms, and industries – has been a substantial contributor to sustained economic growth

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

October 22, 2025

Frozen Assets

Europe

Frozen Assets

This European survey examines: Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz has recently called for the Russian central bank’s assets that are frozen in Europe to be made available for the defense of Ukraine: https://www.ft.com/content/3aacc930-9f5e-4558-90f1-62bf47a31cd5 (a) Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially accelerate the ending of the war; (b) Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially reduce investment in assets issued by European economies; (c) Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

October 8, 2025

Inflation and Central Bank Independence

Europe

Inflation and Central Bank Independence

This European survey examines (a) If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged; (b) There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound; (c) The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

September 25, 2025

Energy and Emissions in Developing Countries

Europe

Energy and Emissions in Developing Countries

This European survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

September 11, 2025